The hottest spot demand will be gradually released

Spot demand will be gradually released, and LLDPE is expected to gradually strengthen

[historical review in January 2011]

January is the off-season of traditional demand, so the overall demand is relatively weak. Although at the beginning of the month, driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, petrochemicals raised their exit prices, and LLDPE futures prices also rose slightly, the good times are not long, and the weak demand in the spot market is difficult to form price support, With the gradual weakening of the demand in the spot market, the sales pressure of upstream petrochemical enterprises and traders has gradually increased, so the futures price of LLDPE and the spot price of various PE varieties gradually fell back in the market before the Spring Festival

Figure 1: comparison of PE spot price trend and LLDPE futures price trend

figure shows the comparison of PE spot price trend and LLDPE futures price trend. (picture source: wind, Haitong Futures Research Institute)

the trading volume of LLDPE futures in January is still quite active, basically maintaining a fluctuation between 10000 hands. The position is also maintained near the historical high since the listing of the variety. The monthly position is maintained at 170000 hands, an increase of 17660 hands over the previous January. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the market trading volume shrinks rapidly at the end of the month. If the current situation of winning the bid at the lowest price does not change, the trading volume on the last two trading days before the Spring Festival is only 290000 and 180000, respectively, and the market trading atmosphere is cold

monthly closing price

monthly opening price

monthly highest price

monthly lowest price

monthly rise and fall

monthly rise and fall

monthly position change

monthly trading volume

monthly position

l1102

10770

11500

11550

10770

-615

-5.4018

166

78

l1103

11000

11570

11820

10700

-480

-4.1812

1346

6762

907 8

L1104

11780

12305

13345

11390

-510

-4.1497

162

1466

420

L1105

11820

12510

12845

11485

-620

-4.9839

17660

174144

L1106

11900

12430

12860

11525

-530

-4.2639

-22

380

136

L1107

11965

12595

11965

-580

-4.6234

0

16

16

L1108

11815

12930

13000

11355

-885

-6.9685

2

210

6

L1109

12280

13005

13355

11965

-725

-5.5748

2680

33650

5944

L1110

12565

12945

12120

-540

-4.1206

30

172

36

L1111

12500

13195

13205

12500

-490

-2

26

8

l1112

12550

13295

12550

-295

-2.2966

2

32

4

l1201

12570

13340

12315

12570

14

46

14

l continuous

10770

11150

11450

10770

-375

-3.3647

-28778

8978

78

l with three

11820

12325

13345

11485

-470

-3.8242

173886

174144

l with four

11900

12430

12845

11525

-540

-4.3408

-156348

136

[market focus in February 2011]

1 Fundamentals and capital jointly boost the high operation of international crude oil prices

the spot price of crude oil in some regions on the international spot market broke through the $100/ton mark in the time window in mid January. At the same time, the price of Brent crude oil futures fluctuated upward, rising $5.9/barrel for the whole month, with an increase of 6.23%. Under the influence of the Egyptian riots at the end of the month, it broke through the $100 mark upward, The Dubai spot market price and OPEC package crude oil price are also at the high level of the US dollar. The trend of WTI crude oil is roughly the same in direction, However, it has gradually lost its position as a benchmark price expert. 1. A tip: "we should stop following the trend and hyping graphene and other popular new chemical material varieties, which will be introduced in detail in the next section.

Figure 2: international crude oil standard price in January 2011

the figure shows the trend of international crude oil standard price. (picture source: wind, Haitong Futures Research Institute)

Figure 3: price trend of international crude oil spot market in January 2011

the figure shows the price trend of international crude oil spot market. (picture source: wind, Haitong Futures Research Institute)

the bull market sentiment in the international crude oil futures market comes from various factors of fundamentals and capital. First of all, the premature supercooling of winter in northern China this year boosted the demand for heating oil. The crude oil inventory consumption exceeded the quarterly average level, and the inventory continued to decline. As can be seen from the figure, compared with 2009, the number of heating days in Europe began to rise sharply at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2010, of which the number of heating days in November was more than twice that in November 2009. The premature cold winter significantly affected the demand for crude oil in the European market of nearly all large enterprises of biomedical materials, which are multinational companies. The number of heating days in the United States was lower than the historical normal level in October, but it began to increase significantly in October. Pay attention to inserting the positioning pin, while Japan was less affected by this

secondly, although the crisis situation of small countries in Europe continues, it has been improved by the rescue mechanism of the European Central Bank, and more importantly, the global economy led by China, the United States and India continues to recover, making the international demand for crude oil continue to increase, which is also an important basic factor for the international crude oil price to maintain a bull market

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content